The Love For Simple Logic, And Why Highly Educated People Still Believe In Superstition? [Part 2]
Pseudosciences have negative impacts to the society and therefore, need to be abolished.
“Be skeptical if things run too smoothly”, we have repeatedly discussed this viewpoint in our previous posts. Therefore, examining the value of pseudo-/anti-/non-scientific disciplines is also necessary to avoid falling into seeing the world only through scientific lenses.
3. The correctness of superstitious practices does not depend on how many people believe in it.
(See section 1–2 in previous post)
In this series of posts, I will not get into the analysis of astrological techniques and their scientific evaluation, but you can check them out at the links cited below in the comments section [1] . In general, scientific arguments often revolve around several main issues:
- The actual celestial alignment in reality is either not as recorded, or has changed significantly since last report. This seriously affects the theoretical background of astrologers. However, after a certain time, astrology also began to change its reasoning to “adapt” to new knowledge that science has discovered.
- No relationship was found between the position or movement of celestial bodies and humans, especially in terms of human psychophysiology as shown in astrological documents. Innocent interpretations like “70% of the human body is water, the moon creates tides that affect water -> the moon affects humans” of course could have been eliminated from the beginning by conventional logic.
- Considering the results given by astrologers, their accuracy rates are only equal to or sometimes lower than random rates. That is, the fact that an astrologer relies on horoscopes (and similar techniques) to predict one’s personality is not 100% wrong, but its accuracy rate is only equal to the probability of a random prediction.
-As for the possibility of future validation, astrologers also avoid making verifiable predictions, by often using vague statements. According to experiments performed for many decades, science has found that astrological predictions are no more accurate than chattering.
The theoretical background of astrology is also extremely lacking in the fundamental principles of scientific theory, thus, it has long been considered pseudoscience.
Therefore, in the first post of this series, the fact that we mentioned the different milestones or influential degree is not intended to be used as an argument to undermine the theoretical system of astrology, but only to criticize the final fallacies of those who don’t really understand science (and probably neither do they understand astrology), or more generally about logic and how the world itself works.
For example, science is trusted not because of its widespread influence at present time or its millennia-old lifetime, but because of its relevance in the process of unraveling reality. Because even when only Galileo dared to declare “why the Earth is still spinning” while the majority of people in the world were against it,the truth is the Earth is spinning. The validity of science exists all around us, and you are seeing it.
Therefore, being trusted by the minority, or suppressed by the majority, has nothing to do with astrology being reliable or not. From a scientific point of view, let us declare that all of the following disciplines are unreliable, and should be ignored to avoid wasting time and unreasonably disturbing your mind: astrology, fortune telling, tarot reading, numerology, horoscopes, numerals, divination, I Ching, Feng-shui …
Are the above mentioned disciplines considered correct to some extent? I think the answer is already inside you and I’m not going to convince you to change your mind either. Since the formation of a belief is a complex process, it will take a similarly complex process to change it — and you probably won’t need it either.
However, for the people standing at the crossroads, here are a few things I would like to tell you during this week on the topic of “Brain & Mind”.
4. Revisiting the reason why one believes in someone else’s words.
In the same 2009 survey of The Harris Poll cited in Part 1, which says that about 26% of Americans believe in astrology, the data also suggest that 32% believe in the existence of UFOs and 42% believe that ghosts are real. Having a large group of people believe in something should never be the basis for evaluating the validity of a truth [2] .
But why do people care so much about some strangers’ opinions, even though mathematically it is likely an unreliable opinion, especially in particular advice? For instance, mothers easily listen to tons of “tips on raising children” from fish sellers in markets (for example, using honey to stop babies from crying, though honey could lead to Botulinum poison in newborns- an extremely dangerous disease [3] ), or some even trust a comment assessing the US political situation just because it has so many likes.
Why have people never realized the very simple fact that the ratio between experts and ordinary people is extremely low?
As in a classroom, there are usually only a few reliably good students to ask for answers to problems; only a few people at work with high enough expertise to ask for advice; the odds of meeting a medical professional in the market are so low and the political scholars/ordinary people ratio is so low that it is almost imperceptible when browsing comments on Facebook?
For that reason, although it is not necessary to stop listening to advice from random people you meet, it is important to narrow down some specific types of advice to take into consideration. These include advice on health (especially for children), education, career, finance, specific skills … at the same time one should keep the attitude of not taking too much of what you hear from people who are not experts .
This advice seems too redundant to say, but there are many stories about families’ struggles because grandparents force parents to raise their kids based on folk experiences, even though the parents are experts in the medical field. Sometimes the impact of wandering social advice is so great that it disturbs professionals. For example, educators and healthcare professionals still give their children fingerprint biometric tests — a science hoax that has just emerged recently.
In a highly specialized society, each of us is well aware of the complexity of our work and knows that nothing is as easy or simple as society often says. Ironically and sarcastically, however, people also underestimate the areas of expertise of others. For instance, a professor, while recognizing the complexity of making intellectual statements, underestimates the complexity of artists’ illustrations. Artists, on the one hand, hate that others underestimate the complexity of their work, still make the mistake of simplifying the complexity of other professions’ work on the other hand. It seems that this is a big problem during the period of increasing specialization, perhaps we will come back to this matter and dig deeper into it later.
While the above contradiction remains unresolved, one thing has persisted throughout and affected humanity for thousands of years: the appeal of stories.
Miraculously, often closely related to the profound problems of linguistics and psychology, the arrangement of a few letters can give a powerful liveliness to itself. Reading documents of anti-science disciplines such as numerology, feng shui, tarot and astrology, I realize one thing relatively clear: the way their content is conveyed and use of language are quite specific. These documents are structured in a way that is more about solving mental problems than what actually happens in practice.
Therefore, contrary to science, learners of the aforementioned subjects do not have to “understand” the given interpretation, instead, it is more important to follow the instructions. The use of words, interpretations, rituals… when done correctly and enough will bring efficiency in terms of “practice”. In general, these documents will help “sibyls” to be more successful at persuading others than in solving problems for them.
Consequently, although research showed that predictions (both past and future) of the practitioners of the above subjects are nothing more than random guesswork, this theoretical framework has always lived well over time. That is not to mention a series of other techniques used when people are in doubt, or to relieve the responsibility of making false predictions (not just material, but mental responsibility, meaning those who receive false predictions will not really accept the words from fortune tellers). These techniques are often documented in great detail, and are useful even for those who do not really understand the intentions of the documents (i.e. those who are eager to follow and not see the real principle behind the documents).
Since it’s a professional and catchy type of content, in a society where a lot of people are preoccupied with a great amount of problems that they’re not experts in, fortune tellers don’t care about those who are against them. They care more about the group they can influence and exploit. Assuming the random guessing ratio of a correct given piece of advice is ⅓, the “sybils” need no more than that. That ⅓ then continues to propagate the “power” of anti-science disciplines to others (often people in the same group will easily identify with each other in terms of beliefs and opinions)… and so on. Astrology or any other subject does not require more than 50% of the believers to live well. The Atlantic newspaper calls astrology a kind of meme [4] .
But that ratio only represents “those who really go to the fortune teller and really feel right to themselves”, the number of people who talk about it is often more than that. There exist a lot of people who do not go to fortune-telling but still believe, and still try to protect it because of the stories they hear. These are stories like “there is always a very, very good fortune teller that you have not met, only met when fateful, and being deceived or mistaken is due to meeting a fake fortune teller”. A sybil who no one has ever met, but still exists in many stories, perhaps whose reputation is only lost to “the uncle who got cancer in the hospital returned after taking traditional medicine and recovered completely”.
The correctness and reliability of the narratives and the theoretical foundation of the anti-scientific disciplines will very quickly fall apart if you are a rational and skeptical person. But skepticism is not possible just because we are born with 46 chromosomes. That is the environment, education and a long life. Thus, their appearance and disappearance in society are not dependent on an individual’s will. It will take some time until the social structure becomes fully integrated with science. Before that, the fact that people chose to believe in stories was not something that was too confusing.
And that belief does not mean it is correct, and does not mean you should obey just because people say it.
5. Uncertainty, aversion to randomness, and simple logical preference.
In addition to being fond of stories, we also hate randomness, hate complex things, and love things that are simple and easy to understand.
Therefore, it is not too surprising if this article does not reach too many people, especially those who have been followers of anti-scientific subjects before. This article may be annoying for them, while the subjects in question have easy-to-understand explanations, easy to accept and seem to solve the problem immediately.
Unfortunately, the world is not that simple.
Unfortunately, there is nothing that is simple.
Regarding this simple habit of thinking, we have mentioned in many posts, but most clearly in the one on fair world sophistication [5] , about people hating vague choices [6] , posts explain why people learn less statistical probability [7] .
In general, we like to have simple and clear answers to everything: why our children are bad at school, why the business is losing money, why we lose sleep… Sometimes it’s extreme like why someone has bad luck, why the pandemic is still ravaging… People are afraid of things they don’t know or unclear and are afraid to accept the fact that they are not in control of everything.
Science can provide answers to these questions, but it won’t be “simple” enough or firmly asserted as everyone wants. Therefore, people like to believe in conclusions such as “children’s bad performance at school is due to too much time spent on mobile phones “, “business failure is due to evil spirits”, “insomnia is due to poor feng shui house features”, “someone has bad luck due to karma, or because they made some mistakes before”,”the pandemic China’s fault”…
In the opposite direction, human psychology even has an aversion to ambiguity (see article no. [5]), and uncertainty is associated with psychological ailments such as anxiety, depression, sleep disturbances, eating disorders [6]. We are so afraid of loss of control, ambiguity and uncertainty that we seem to be attached to biological instincts — instead of just “feeling”.
In addition to being complicated, the academic fields also consist of a region of uncertainty, but human psychology is not good at accepting this truth. This combined with an increasingly specialized, complex and stressful society, has left the average person facing a series of uncertain questions that no one can answer (and cannot be answered on their own), while formal academic knowledge is too complex for all to understand, or dares not jumping to hurried conclusions like anti-scientific subjects. Therefore, the emergence of spiritual disciplines, superstitions, and anti-science can be seen as a cup of cold drink to ease the thirst immediately. In other words, it is the “opium of the people” as some may call it.
For instance, these are a few explanations proposed by anti-scientific disciplines:
- Numerology: You feel uncomfortable and anxious, life is so meaningless and boring that you fall victim to extreme pessimism, because you have 3 eights in your natal chart.
- Astrology: “the problems with vote counts in the US” is because the election happens during “Mercury retrograde”. Some astrologists even predicted Trump would win in the end because “Mercury will travel to Sagittarius, unraveling the truth behind”.
- Feng Shui: putting a plant pot in a hidden corner will lead to loss of fortune and arguments between couples.
- Others: insomnia due to ghosts haunting, troubles in love because of underworld love…
There have been so many posts on the psychological effects leading people to easily fall for these contents, in general, the judgements of whether something is right or wrong lie in the listeners instead of objective measures. Therefore, in a society where the majority favor simplicity and are not capable of judging in detail certain advice, the fact that people are shaken by those advice is not too difficult to understand.
Of course, the explanations and solutions they provide won’t solve any real-world problems, but they do help in easing the mind and the problems of perception. Because we all see the objective world based on a subjective system of knowledge, thus, maybe some people panic sooner than others, and compared to the actual situation currently happening. Psychological relief can REALLY make them feel better, and in turns change the way they see the world, as well as impact the reality they face.
Therefore, while not being as practically valuable as science, almost meaningless in the pursuit of truth, certain superstitions can help some to adapt better in this harsh life.
The truth where having to do well in sciences is already a kind of pressure.
In a world where science has become more formal and widely applied, many people have had difficulty, even negative psychological impact from them: from school, to work and exposure to social issues. As a result, the theoretical system of other anti-scientific disciplines somehow “empowers” us to re-gain control and autonomy, and this is comfortable, if not great.
However, choosing one option just because of not knowing the other better, is never highly appreciated. It is a strangely miserable patchwork, when we all can live only once, but have to put our faith in something temporarily.
Feng-shui believers do not know that architectural science is better, more efficient and more reliable (the new Western city is what is being applied back to Asia, rather than the other way around). People who believe in quack doctors are largely due to having difficulty experiencing the modern health system. Those who choose to believe in astrology, tarot reading…, do not know that there are many specialized sciences that can solve personal problems better.
Anti-scientific disciplines are fully exploiting the land of many people’s ideas, creating a series of bogus problems and claiming that they alone can solve them. Many people are still questioning “science still can’t explain ghost phenomenon, but spiritual groups can”, without knowing that the belief that “ghosts are real” is just a fake phenomenon plugged into their mind through a series of folkstories.
Using “drugs” always results in dependence until quitting.
6. No mercy.
Many studies have shown that believing in anti-scientific solutions is a strategy many people choose to combat negative emotions in their lives [8] . Through talking frankly with those pursuing these subjects, I also find that they perceive the positive value they receive, and figuring out the worst possible outcome is actually nothing. People still think it is fun, and effective, until the fun fades away.
But I don’t think so, because everything has a price. People forget that things get more complicated from a multiplayer perspective, and during a long enough period of time. It will become a powerful social phenomenon that is also difficult to recognize by those affected by it. Especially when the majority of devotees of subjects such as astrology, tarot divination… are often young people. It will be hard to know if they will learn something and stop, or continue to become more stubborn with the thoughts they have agreed with from now on.
In the article on The Independent, author of the famous book The Selfish Gene, the most prominent still-living public scientist, Richard Dawkins, noted: “Astrology is neither harmless nor fun, and we should see it as an enemy of truth ”.
In addition to being a successful public scientist, a scholar with remarkable work, Dawkins is also President Charles Simonyi * Oxford’s first Science Public Awareness. Dawkins is well aware of the danger when the public gives tolerance to anti-scientific disciplines, because this public also includes individuals who have an impact on society.
* [The title is sponsored by Hungarian-American software engineer, billionaire Charles Simonyi, who created the first version of Microsoft Office. The name of the sponsor is attached to the title].
“WE SHOULD take astrology seriously”, he wrote. No, I don’t mean we should believe in it. I am talking about fighting it seriously instead of humouring it as a piece of harmless fun. Frivolous tolerance, probably the dominant stance towards astrology among educated people who don’t actually believe in it, ran right through a recent article in the Independent on Sunday by Justine Picardie, “Spinning after Patric’s Star”.
In his article, Dawkins condemned a series of reporters, which indirectly advocated the expansion of astrology, and even educated jokes about things like “I have a Capricorn personality type”. Those who do not know that their accommodating attitude towards a hobby they do not really believe in is contributing to the spread of those ideas to the public, and the ideas will meet many others who will unconditionally believe in. That belief is helping with the sale of books about the zodiacs and alike, attracting a lot of money and followers in return.
People often think that readers who spend money on books are ideologically mature and fully rational in their decision making- instead of children who are at the age of forming their own opinions in seeing the world, and loving folk stories.
Dawkins also cited a series of events that showed the rapid rise of astrology in the late 20th century, when the public began to talk more about it, and the news press quickly surrendered to its attractive and potential type of content. A vicious cycle, and things eventually get out of control, negatively affect those who are seriously pursuing the truth through knowledge.
He wondered why so many of us indulge in a piece of bullshit that is nothing more than a malicious hoax.
Indeed, if the above mentioned anti-scientific theories could help people psychologically, it is also psychologically destructive. We have never met the “good sybil in the legend”, but have directly heard and encountered a series of money scams, or even caused a series of conflicts. The danger of not taking them seriously, can be verified by the headline “deceived by a fortune teller” as if there exists a non-fraudulent fortune teller *, or there exists a “good sybil” but the victim did not have the opportunity to meet.
[*Fraud is an act of deception to make others believe in order to perform self-seeking purposes, against the law. This is the definition by law. Fortune teller converges all the factors to be called fraud, regardless of whether being “good” or “bad”].
So maybe we should still have mercy, but only use it for the affected individuals, rather than for the non-scientific theories themselves.
In a social situation that is not yet fully developed, imposing scientific knowledge may not be a viable solution, let alone whether it is the right solution or not. The lack of perfection in social design is giving us all a lot of stress, ambiguity, and so on. Lots of people need a good night’s sleep, a good mood to work efficiently, instead of a bunch of data or scientific facts being dumped on them (which are largely unresolved immediately).
But if the problem is in society, then improve it. To do so, it is necessary to seriously pursue science. If you want to build up strong fundamental thoughts for yourself to live through the human life that has accidentally fallen at this point, then seek philosophy.
There’s always something better for you. Not only is it better, it’s also more fun, effective and most important of all, it offers freedom instead of confinement and dependence.
#MonsterBox
*Theology, religion or mysticism, if investigated in a research direction, is also very useful in solving social phenomena (in the context of the young social sciences, and the current social structure where many religious and ideological traces of each person are influenced by theology) — however, following this path is more difficult and harsher than science or philosophy. It doesn’t seem like a viable option for you — whoever is reading this post. Not to mention that serious research does not help solve personal, social problems or find the meaning of life as committed by other instant noodle anti-science disciplines.
*About the title of the post: “why highly educated people believe in superstition” is a mock question. In reality, surveys in the US showed that the more educated someone is, the less he believes in anti-scientific disciplines [9] . The fact that some experts and scientists still raise their voice to support anti-scientific theories is, on a statistical point of view, reasonable, as explained through the article in link [10] .
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References:
[1]
- Astronomy and astrology
P. Zarka, “Astronomy and astrology,” Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union, vol. 5, no. S260, pp. 420–425, Jan. 2009, doi: 10.1017/s1743921311002602.
- The relationship between date of birth and individual differences in personality and general intelligence: A large-scale studyP. Hartmann, M. Reuter, and H. Nyborg, “The relationship between date of birth and individual differences in personality and general intelligence: A large-scale study,” Personality and Individual Differences, vol. 40, no. 7, pp. 1349–1362, May 2006, doi: 10.1016/j.paid.2005.11.017.
- Belief in Pseudoscience
https://web.archive.org/.../statis.../seind06/c7/c7s2.htm...
- Astrology and Science in Seventeenth-Century England
P. Wright, “Astrology and Science in Seventeenth-Century England,” Social Studies of Science, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 399–422, Nov. 1975, doi: 10.1177/030631277500500402.
- Criticism and the growth of knowledge
https://archive.org/details/criticismgrowth00laka
- Why Astrology is a Pseudoscience
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/.../psaprocbienmeetp...
- A double-blind test of astrology
S. Carlson, “A double-blind test of astrology,” Nature, vol. 318, no. 6045, pp. 419–425, Dec. 1985, doi: 10.1038/318419a0.
- Astrologers fail to predict proof they are wrong
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/.../Astrologers-fail-to...
Dean G.; Kelly, I. W. (2003). “Is Astrology Relevant to Consciousness and Psi?”. Journal of Consciousness Studies. 10 (6–7): 175–198.
Pigliucci, Massimo (2010). Nonsense on stilts : how to tell science from bunk ([Online-Ausg.]. ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. ISBN 9780226667850.
[2] Andrew, “Given that 30% of Americans believe in astrology, it’s no surprise that some nontrivial percentage of influential American psychology professors are going to have the sort of attitude toward scientific theory and evidence that would lead them to have strong belief in weak theories supported by no good evidence. «Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science,” Columbia.edu, 2020. https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/11/42552/ (accessed Feb. 04, 2021).
[3] “Prevention,” 2021. https://www.cdc.gov/botulism/prevention.html (accessed Feb. 04, 2021).
[4] J. Beck, “Why Are Millennials So Into Astrology?,” The Atlantic, Jan. 16, 2018. https://www.theatlantic.com/.../the-new-age-of.../550034/ (accessed Feb. 04, 2021).
[5] https://www.facebook.com/.../a.196200706.../2847797422167672
[6] https://www.facebook.com/teammonsterbox/photos/2801252083488873
[7] https://www.facebook.com/teammonsterbox/photos/2714997998780949
[8] Lillqvist and Marjaana Lindeman, “Belief in Astrology as a Strategy For Self-Verification and Coping With Negative Life-Events,” ResearchGate, Sep. 1998. https://www.researchgate.net/.../235630819_Belief_in... (accessed Feb. 04, 2021).
[9] C. Gecewicz, “‘New Age’ beliefs common among both religious and nonreligious Americans,” Pew Research Center, Oct. 2018. https://www.pewresearch.org/.../new-age-beliefs-common.../ (accessed Feb. 04, 2021).
[10] Andrew, “Given that 30% of Americans believe in astrology, it’s no surprise that some nontrivial percentage of influential American psychology professors are going to have the sort of attitude toward scientific theory and evidence that would lead them to have strong belief in weak theories supported by no good evidence. «Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science,” Columbia.edu, 2020. https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/11/42552/ (accessed Feb. 04, 2021).
